Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi

Alessandro Magnoli Bocchi (born 25 April 1968), is an Italian economist, investment professional and manager.

Quotes

English

On policy-making

• "Every day, 1) ‘simple systems’ become complex: for example, a village becomes part of a city; and 2) ‘complex systems’ become more complex: for instance, financial markets embrace machine learning. Often, an increase in complexity leads to unintended consequences".
• "By nature, ‘complex systems’ grow or decay at exponential rates. As suggested by the butterfly-effect in chaos theory, a negligible change in an ‘original state’ can lead to a radically different ‘resulting state’. In other words, a minor event might have large, unpredictable effects - depending on its: a) position in network (i.e.: initial conditions); b) degree of connectivity (i.e.: ease of interaction); and c) size of the impact".
• "The future is not a straight-line-projection of the past. Yet, most people - even scientists - think in linear, cause-effect patterns. The real world works differently: events follow discontinuous random walks, not predictable trends. At best, we can only assess the ‘likelihood of forthcoming events’. A rule-based approach is often misleading; to forecast future developments, we need probabilistic - rather than deterministic – thinking".
• "We need to learn how to manage ‘non-linear feedback loops’, ‘quantum jumps’, and the unpredictable consequences any event can bring about".
• "In an era of complexity, quantum thinking is needed – particularly in central banking".
• "Enlightened, quantum policymaking has an important role to play. Yet, ‘classical physics’ still shapes our way of learning. Cause-effect, linear thinking should be abandoned. To better understand our complex world, we must say “Bye” to Newton".

Source: Vox Lacea - Good Bye, Newton!

On Democracy

• "From Athens’ ‘Thirty Tyrants’ to the rise of Hitler, democracy always failed “from inside”. The shift towards authoritarianism was favored by: 1) rapidly changing contexts; 2) inept rulers; and 3) weak institutions".
• "Change is needed. In the absence of bold decisions, rising inequality will foster populism and nationalism, putting democracy at risk".

Source: Vox Lacea - Fix the economy, save democracy

State or markets?

• "The question “state or markets?” is poorly posed. The dichotomy between “intervention - state - planning - equity” and “laissez faire - private sector - market - efficiency” stems from inappropriate consequential reasoning: the state can be inequitable and the market inefficient. Debates about primacy should end: state and market are complementary - not substitutes. Whenever governments and markets have worked well together, the results have been spectacular: ‘moon landing’ is the most quoted, quintessential example".
• "In public policy, dependencies and unintended consequences matter. For example, ‘climate change’ and ‘population aging’ are key drivers of migration and cannot be ignored when designing immigration policies. Also, ‘deforestation’ not only leads to ‘global warming’, but also drives wild animals closer to humans - increasing the likelihood of viral infections, via ‘cross-species leaps’. As a result, most decisions cannot be taken in isolation: solving problems in one place is likely to create new ones, elsewhere. Also, well-intentioned policy choices can often provide perverse incentives - and obtain the opposite of their stated objectives. The phenomenon is known as the “cobra effect”: in India, during British rule, the authorities’ bounty on dead cobras resulted in a larger cobra population. In other words, policy making: 1) relies on a complex, interrelated context; and 2) can lead to unpredictable, non-linear outcomes".
• "Future shocks could exceed the ‘ability to respond’ of governments, businesses and citizens".
• "Tackling ‘population aging’ - especially in high-income countries, where the median age is above 40 - requires: 1) acknowledging that most pension systems are financially unsustainable; and 2) reducing the resources allocated to the most sizeable share of the electorate - the elderly".
• "‘Greening the economy’ is likely to be as challenging: every year governments across the world subsidize fossil-fuels (coal, oil, gas) for an amount equivalent to Japan’s GDP, produce electricity by burning them, and authorize the chopping to ‘non-forest use’ of an area the size of Belgium".
• "The state must set the framework for the markets to function (...) but in the long run, innovation needs a competitive private sector".
• "When designed and implemented correctly, ‘conditional financing’ can: 1) steer resources towards the strategic objectives; 2) avoid speculative capture, by ensuring the productive use of public resources; and 3) push the private sector towards inclusive, sustainable growth".
• "The state needs to enable the markets, but - contrary to the dreams of planners and technocrats - development cannot be ‘state-managed’. For the business environment to lead to innovation, the state needs to protect ‘public goods’ such as: 1) competition; and more broadly 2) the entrepreneurial spirit. Policymakers must achieve a practical, dynamic balance in the state-market mix".

Source: Vox Lacea - State or markets?

On Megatrends

• "Thinking about the future gives vertigo. It takes courage to look ahead. The ancient Greeks - when they sought to know - consulted the oracle at Delphi. Religion and magic help manage anxiety, but a dispassionate analysis of data and probabilities may actually provide useful guidance".
• "Largely unnoticed, megatrends transform the way we live and work. Preoccupied by our daily worries, we tend to overlook the irreversible forces that shape our life. In the past, the printing-press and the telephone forever changed human communication. Combustion and electricity revolutionized energy management. Going forward, the unfolding of similar ‘transformative, disruptive shifts’ will reshape society, business and the global economy".

Source: Vox Lacea - Fasten your seatbelts

Italian

On Italy

• "[In Italy,] continuing to do 'what has always been done' is not convenient: living on rents and clinging to the past would equate to a slow suicide, because in the meanwhile risks would rise and the economy would get exposed to potential adverse shocks. If not challenged, the “I hope I get through” mentality will lead to shipwreck or irrelevance – which is the same". Original quote: "[In Italia,] continuare a fare ‘ciò che si è sempre fatto’ non conviene; vivere di rendita, aggrappati al passato, sarebbe un lento suicidio, perché nel frattempo i rischi aumentano e l’economia viene esposta a potenziali shock avversi. Se elevata a sistema, la mentalità dell’“io speriamo che me la cavo” porterà al naufragio o all’irrilevanza – che è lo stesso".
• "(...) throughout the Peninsula, informal and personal social ties are more important than formal and impersonal ones. When the community (Gemeinschaft, in German) counts more than society (Gesellschaft), family relationships - making up for the absence of the State - prevail over collective responsibilities, weakening civil society". Original quote: "(...) lungo tutta la Penisola, i legami sociali informali e personali sono più importanti di quelli formali e impersonali. Quando la comunità (Gemeinschaft, in tedesco) conta più della società (Gesellschaft), le relazioni familistiche – supplendo all’assenza dello Stato – prevalgono sulle responsabilità collettive, indebolendo la società civile".
• "Almost as if it were a new religion, we need to start rewarding those who create added value and take up the responsibilities required by their role in the community". Original quote: "Quasi fosse una nuova religione, bisogna iniziare a premiare chi crea valore aggiunto, assumendosi le responsabilità richieste dal proprio ruolo nella collettività".
• "We need to understand and resolve discontent, preventing valid social issues from falling into nationalism". Original quote: "Bisogna capire e risolvere lo scontento, evitando che valide istanze sociali cadano nel nazionalismo".

Source: Econopoly - Il Sole 24 Ore

On Development

• "Women are the (forgotten) half of the world's population, and their social inclusion would benefit everyone". Original quote: "Le donne costituiscono la metà (dimenticata) della popolazione mondiale, e la loro inclusione sociale porterebbe benefici a tutti".
• "Complex problems are not solved (only) with money". Original quote: "I problemi complessi non si risolvono (solo) con i soldi".

Source: La Voce and lavoce.info